Climate Change Threatens the Future of Bananas
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The cultivation of the world’s most popular fruit – bananas – is under threat from climate change, particularly due to tropical cyclones. Plantations in Southeast Asia and the Caribbean will be most affected, where production will face significantly greater risks – in the Caribbean, almost 50% more. This is revealed by an international study that included participation from the Biotechnical Faculty of the University of Ljubljana.
Bananas are often grown as monocultures, making them more susceptible to various diseases. They are also increasingly threatened by extreme weather events such as heavier rainfall and stronger winds. A single tropical cyclone can completely destroy a banana plantation – either directly through the physical destruction of plants and infrastructure, or indirectly through root rot and diseases caused by standing water after the storm. This not only results in the loss of a year's harvest but can prevent banana cultivation in the affected area for several years.
The international study, led by Sophie Kaashoek from the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) in Amsterdam, focused on where and to what extent these changes will affect banana-growing regions. In addition to the University of Ljubljana’s Biotechnical Faculty, the Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria also participated as partners.
Research Findings
Globally, a significant increase in risk from tropical cyclones is not expected, but certain important banana-producing regions will be more affected. The areas expected to see the greatest increase in destructive cyclone impact on banana cultivation are Southeast Asia (a 21.9% increase in cyclone-affected areas and a 12.4% higher exposure of production) and the Caribbean (a 9.3% increase in cyclone-affected areas and nearly 50% higher exposure of production). The study only assesses direct exposure and potential destruction of banana plantations – indirect effects, such as more pests and diseases or root rot in the days following destructive cyclones, will also impact banana production.
At the same time, increased exposure of production areas means potential damage to infrastructure and higher adaptation costs, such as early pruning of plants, improved drainage on plantations, more resilient storage facilities, and plantation insurance. The actual damage and threat to banana production will be even higher due to changes in the intensity, frequency, and paths of tropical cyclones.
"Bananas are the most widely produced fruit in the world, and they are essential for the food security and income of millions of people globally," warns study co-author Dr. Žiga Malek from the Biotechnical Faculty.
However, it is clear that banana cultivation will either need to adapt to the new climate reality of increasingly frequent and intense tropical cyclones in many areas across the world or shift away from regions where cyclones are becoming too frequent or too destructive. Our research helps other scientists, policymakers in banana-producing countries, and banana-trading companies to identify the areas where adaptation measures to tropical cyclones will be especially critical.
dr. Žiga Malek, Researcher at UL Biotechnical Faculty
The study, published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, is openly accessible at: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025. It was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme and the Dutch Research Council (Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek).
